Debunking the Martingale Myth

Debunking the Martingale Myth

THERE is a dangerous myth doing the rounds on the internet that it is possible to overcome all risk and cruise effortlessly to eventual riches by means of a system known as Martingale.
 
Martingale is not a new concept, indeed it was popular in 18th century France.  However in the age of the internet it has taken on a whole new life, with countless sites offering the benefits of this supposedly foolproof system, sometimes at a price and at other times out of the apparent goodness of somebody's heart.
 
The theory is this.  The punter places a bet on a market, say £1, at evens.  The price doesn't have to be evens, it just helps us for the benefit of this example if it is. 
 
The outcome will be one of two eventualities.  Either the bet will win, giving the punter a profit of £1 to place in his bank.  Or, alternatively, the bet will lose in which case he then places another bet, this time of £2, on a similar market.  If it wins he will have made a profit of £2 on the bet, or £1 in total when the initial loss is taken account of.
 
If this bet is unsuccessful, the same bettor then places £4 on another evens market.  Again, if it is successful, he will be £1 up overall.  If unsuccessful his next stake will be £8, and so on.
 
The Martingale system can be applied to almost any kind of wager.  It can be used at the casino (most purveyors of this "foolproof" system, for some peculiar reason, seem possessed of the notion that it works particularly well on European Roulette), at the games table (Heads or Tails is a particularly straightforward market for using such a system) or in the sportsbook.
 
On the surface it would appear to make sense.  If you flip a coin often enough, it has to show a Head sometime - doesn't it?
 
Well technically the answer is yes.  But the Martingale theory ignores two very important, and when you think of it fundamental, considerations.
 
First of all, most punters will have finite resources at their disposal.  After five unsuccessful flips of the coin your next stake will already be £32, having already flittered away £31.  If your losing streak continues for another five flips, your next unsuccessful bet will leave you £2047 out of pocket.  And don't forget, even if the coin has shown a Tail on the last ten occasions, the chances of it showing a Head next time are still only 50%!
 
Secondly, most casinos and sportsbooks will have a limit as to how much you are able to stake on any particular wager.  Once you hit that limit, you cannot continue to apply the Martingale theory and must therefore take the resultant loss on the chin.
 
So what are the chances of a coin showing a Tail ten times in a row?  The simple answer, in theory, is 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50%.  In other words 0.0009765%, or approximately 1 in 1000.  When it does happen you will have lost £1023 in one fell swoop.  How many £1 wins will you need to recover this?  Get the idea?
 
So far so bad.  But when one takes into account the house edge, which ensures that your chances of winning a 50/50 bet are actually less than 50%, the Martingale system reveals itself to be an absolute no-no. 
 
To put it simply - you will win little and often, then you will lose big.
 
There are many systems being offered out there, but for as long as there is a house edge none that are based on mathematical probability will ever work for you in the long run. 
 
The only systems that work in the final analysis involve betting on winners (or laying losers), using bonuses intelligently to reverse the house edge and exploiting over-generous prices at sportsbooks as and when they are offered.
 
Sportsbettingcentre urges you to remember this, and bet wisely.

Article Source: Link

Mark Richards is the Editor of the popular new Sportsbettingcentre site, with provides odds comparison, live scores, live odds, sportsbook reviews, racing information, bonus and affiliate advice and free articles for webmasters.

How To Increase The Chance of a Major Lottery Win